Abatement of cold wave and cold day conditions over North-West India has only been matched by the emergence of a spell of varying wet weather over the hills and plains of the region, in tandem with the arrival of a causative moisture-laden western disturbance over Afghanistan on Tuesday.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the cyclonic circulation associated with the system to move slightly eastwards to Central Pakistan over the next two days and remain practically stationary there during the subsequent three-four days, sustaining the wet weather to further East over North-West and adjoining Central India.
Induced cyclonic circulation
The western disturbance has already set up an induced cyclonic circulation farther ahead of it over South-West Rajasthan (past the geographies of Afghanistan and Pakistan), which is also likely to persist over the same area during next three-four days. An induced circulation points to the strength of the parent disturbance.
It is the confluence of the moisture-laden south-westerly winds associated with the western disturbance and lower level south-easterly winds blowing in from the Bay of Bengal that is generating rainfall over North-West and Central India. A fresh western disturbance is expected to arrive on Thursday.
Activity over South Peninsula
This disturbance might trigger scattered rainfall/thundershowers over West Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra and rain/snow over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh. It may combine with the easterlies from the Bay to bring showers over Goa, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep area from January 10 to 12.
The North-East monsoon may have officially drawn to a close over the South Peninsula but moisture-laden winds from the Bay have sustained rains even beyond Tamil Nadu already. The IMD outlook for January 10 to 12 says that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thundershowers may lash Kerala, Mahe, Puducherry and Karaikal.
Rains over North-West to continue
The near-term outlook said that light/moderate to fairly widespread rainfall/snowfall is likely over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Ladakh and Uttarakhand until tomorrow (Wednesday) with its peak intensity on Monday and Tuesday (yesterday and today). Heavy rain/snow had been forecast for the Jammu Division and the Kashmir Valley. Hailstorm has been warned of in the region until tomorrow.
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm/hailstorm was forecast for Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, North Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh and North-West Madhya Pradesh for four days from Sunday and would be valid until tomorrow. Isolated heavy rainfall was forecast for Punjab yesterday.